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The study examined the symmetric and asymmetric nexus between trade policy and industrial
production disaggregated into manufacturing, electricity, mining and quarrying production
in Nigeria. The study adopted the ARDL and NARDL framework based on annual time series
data over the period 1970-2018. The findings depict that trade policy dynamics have short
run non-linear effects on industrial output and its subsectors; manufacturing, building and
construction, mining and quarrying output except electricity output and these effects
dovetailed into the long-run and thus the asymmetric effects of trade policies on industrial
output were confirmed. The results from the short-run non-linear ARDL further revealed that
trade restrictions stimulate the performance of the industrial sector and the manufacturing
subsector, while this performance plummets under trade liberalization. These results were
confirmed by the short-run linear ARDL, while the long-run linear ARDL results reported
the contrary without altering the asymmetric status of the nexus. The study therefore
recommends guided liberal trade policy like the Korea, Indonesia and Japan model where
some forms of protections allowed for rapid transformation of the industry and its subsectors.
