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Estimating the size of Nigeria’s output  connectedness with China, India and USA:  a normalised generalised forecast error variance  decomposition approach

ECO 512: ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF NIGERIA’S OUTPUT CONNECTEDNESS WITH CHINA, INDIA AND USA: A NORMALISED GENERALISED FORECAST ERROR VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION APPROACH

ByAnthony Orji
SchoolUniversity of Nigeria, Nsukka
DepartmentEconomics
CategoryResearch PapersAcademic Journals
Levels200100300400500600Post Graduate
₦ 3000
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Description

This paper investigated the size of Nigeria’s output connectedness

with China, India and USA, with particular focus on Nigeria’s latest democratic

era that began in 1999. The study used the normalised generalised forecast

error variance decomposition (GFEVD) of the underlying vector error

correction (VEC) model to construct the connectedness measures. The findings

reveal that India and China are the largest contributors of spillover index in the

system. Overall, the size of the connectedness index of the economies is

34.55%, which shows remarkable output spillovers among these countries. The

policy implication of these results is that Nigerian economic authorities should

closely monitor the output fluctuations around the world, especially those of

Nigeria’s top trade partners like India and China in order to mitigate adverse

output shocks.